Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.470894 2.611016 2.762499 2.939916 3.144012 3.374038 3.656813
2025-03-30 2.239320 2.421606 2.629419 2.888485 3.210024 3.607109 4.155172
2025-04-06 2.073091 2.274138 2.511194 2.819323 3.223047 3.758100 4.573805
2025-04-13 1.959036 2.171999 2.429590 2.775578 3.249592 3.917974 5.039538
2025-04-20 1.903631 2.133398 2.418688 2.815465 3.386683 4.253483 5.903720
2025-04-27 1.874618 2.123313 2.440324 2.897461 3.592125 4.741248 7.335866
2025-05-04 1.820779 2.076619 2.408427 2.898792 3.673041 5.040690 8.631826
2025-05-11 1.774386 2.036063 2.380710 2.901565 3.754209 5.362758 10.401958
2025-05-18 1.708972 1.966647 2.308517 2.830789 3.701194 5.400291 11.311425
2025-05-25 1.668558 1.928473 2.277163 2.818763 3.747080 5.663271 13.789646
2025-06-01 1.629773 1.890516 2.243618 2.799938 3.777339 5.901747 17.184705
2025-06-08 1.592605 1.853063 2.208588 2.775595 3.793523 6.113074 22.126110
2025-06-15 1.574980 1.842604 2.213161 2.817469 3.947394 6.778775 57.297192
2025-06-22 1.531007 1.794039 2.159781 2.760236 3.897077 6.835370 123.987738
2025-06-29 1.487642 1.744951 2.103667 2.695034 3.823466 6.798504 1527.981488
2025-07-06 1.453583 1.707816 2.063789 2.654735 3.797423 6.915872 NaN
2025-07-13 1.441635 1.701195 2.068860 2.690776 3.938159 7.705682 NaN
2025-07-20 1.439658 1.708415 2.094859 2.764947 4.178319 9.175515 NaN
2025-07-27 1.420298 1.689978 2.080566 2.766140 4.249687 9.990477 NaN
2025-08-03 1.402331 1.672928 2.067596 2.768643 4.325121 10.975582 NaN
2025-08-10 1.370294 1.634619 2.020085 2.704612 4.223578 10.699343 NaN
2025-08-17 1.351570 1.615232 2.001640 2.693714 4.258440 11.474741 NaN
2025-08-24 1.332397 1.594674 1.980601 2.676645 4.274999 12.182409 NaN